Labor factional chiefs will meet in Melbourne on Sunday night to gauge whether Premier Jacinta Allan still has the majority support of her MPs ahead of what is set to be a critical test of her leadership when parliament resumes on Tuesday.
The meeting of factional conveners from across the party will provide the first clear sign of whether Allan still has the caucus backing she needs to continue as premier and lead Labor to the state election on November 28.
However, the meeting is taking place in the absence of a declared challenger.
Allan’s most likely replacement, Deputy Premier Ben Carroll, has indicated to colleagues that while he would be a contender if the leadership becomes vacant, he will not use his numbers to bring the premier down.
The Sunday night meeting was confirmed by MPs on both sides of the party’s factional divide. There is consternation among some MPs, particularly across the dominant Left faction, that the meeting’s conveners have not sufficiently canvassed the views of parliamentarians within their respective groups.
The Age has spoken to seven Victorian Labor sources who say they believe Allan would lose if her leadership came to a vote of the party’s 69 MPs.
But, as with the last round of rumblings in June, the pathway for a leadership coup is littered with assumptions that have not yet been realised.
Multiple sources from across both factions agreed it would be difficult for Carroll, who sits on the Right, to challenge Allan – despite some within her own Left faction wanting him to do so – after he publicly ruled out a challenge at a press conference last month.
After looking the premier in the eye and declaring he would not challenge her for the leadership, Carroll told reporters, “I’ve got a young daughter at home, and I couldn’t be more proud to make sure that she grows up knowing that I supported Jacinta Allan to be a world-class premier and get re-elected in her own right”.
Another option being considered is a delegation of factional leaders speaking to Allan and asking her to step aside.
The premier spent Sunday night at her family home in Bendigo with staff, preparing for Monday’s Cabinet meeting.
Two sources said they found it difficult to believe Allan would go down without a fight, but conceded it was not impossible she could be convinced if it were clear she no longer had the numbers in caucus.
A supporter of Allan, on the condition of anonymity to talk freely, said if the Sunday night meeting showed a majority of MPs wanted a change of leadership, the premier could face a vote of no confidence at Tuesday’s caucus meeting.
“It would be a very brave premier that continued in light of an unfavourable outcome,” they said.
Attorney-General Sonya Kilkenny on Sunday said the leadership speculation was “idle gossip”.
“She has my full support, and this idle gossip doesn’t help Victorians,” she said.
“It is only hurting Victorians at a time when Victorians need us all to be focused on them, and that is exactly what Jacinta Allan and our Labor government, our team, is doing.”
Over the past week, a range of new policies have leaked from the Premier’s Private Office that suggest Allan’s team is trying to find announcements that could mollify her colleagues.
On Monday, cabinet will consider a proposal to create a new agency within Victoria Police that targets organised crime and is informed by Australia’s best criminal intelligence.
The policy has been viewed internally as a way to kill off pressure for a royal commission into Big Build corruption, tying the issue together with other political problems such as an increase in firebombings across Melbourne, and community concerns about youth crime rates.
Another leaked policy floated amending the rate cap rules to allow councils to better recoup the costs needed to pay staff – a policy supported by the Australian Services Union but quickly seized on by the opposition as a cost of living attack.
One MP said Allan was in denial about her support and rather than step aside would likely enforce party rules for a spill – which requires a vote of the Labor membership if the caucus result is contested.
But they also said those conspiring needed to “piss or get off the pot”.
A senior Labor figure said Allan’s leadership had been doomed, and she was now incredibly unpopular despite being given time to connect with voters.
“There is now an opportunity to push the reset button, give confidence back to voters and remind voters of the benefits of a strong Labor government”.
The latest Resolve Political Monitor has Allan’s likeability at minus 36, her equal lowest result on record.
Opposition Leader Jess Wilson maintains a lead on preferred premier, with 43 per cent of voters saying they want her to lead the state compared with 24 per cent for Allan.
Chip Le Grand leads our state politics reporting team. He previously served as the paper’s chief reporter and is a journalist of 30 years’ experience.Connect via email.
