An inner west Sydney real estate auctioneer with an influencer side-hustle, Tom Panos is someone few would have heard of. But he has become an overnight celebrity and viral sensation after his weekend property post hit the current property zeitgeist bullseye.
His weekend post reflected, in equal parts, a sense of panic and desperation for property sellers and caution and disinterest from buyers. Both opportunistic sellers and bargain hunting buyers are populating the sidelines.
Panos’ description of the results of last weekend’s auctions he conducted makes for sensational listening – none sold and not even one offer on any of the properties.
“I didn’t have a single person register to bid. Do you understand? Not one registration. Not one person even said to themselves, ‘You know what? There’s a few bargains out there. I might go in and just see what’s actually happening’,” the auctioneer said in a video on social media platform X.
Panos’ colourful reflections on the market, which he puts on social media sites including X, no doubt help to raise his public profile.
However, it is also a sign of the growing property market angst that his posts have gone viral online, while also being picked up on morning television and in other traditional media.
It had been the worst he had experienced in 30 years, Panos said. From his position at the coalface of Sydney real estate, Panos reckons some particularly prestige markets in Sydney have already fallen by 20 per cent, while the middle valuation markets are off 10 per cent. He reckons the only category in which prices are rising is at the lower end, where first home buyers are operating.
The initial auction clearance rate across the country last week does not necessarily reflect Panos’ experience. At first blush a little more than half of the properties that went under the hammer were sold – although this figure is likely to be revised down.
But it’s been 12 weeks now that clearance rates have been well below averages and the negative effect on prices is becoming clearer with each monthly pricing result. Those optimists who subscribe to a short-lived or gentle correction in pricing are looking increasingly isolated.
And there is a growing chorus of property experts predicting a rush of fresh housing stock will hit the market in spring and further depress prices.
Last week the Australian Property Institute declared its finding that the government’s proposed changes to negative gearing was acting as the largest weight on house prices, even greater than this year’s interest rate rises.
And while one shouldn’t subscribe to the school of property price armageddon, it is fair to assume that another interest rate hike of 0.25 percentage points would seal the deal for a decline in national house prices for 2026 that could run into 2027.
The good news is that interest rate markets are punting that the Reserve Bank is unlikely to increase rates next month, but the bad news is that markets predict at least one more rise in interest before the end of the year.
We will have a clearer picture on how the RBA may be assessing the economic landscape after the June quarterly inflation number is delivered on Wednesday.
Inflation is feeding into overall consumer caution as are the twists and turns of President Donald Trump’s Middle Eastern war and its impact on petrol prices.
These are not the ingredients for robust economic growth or a vibrant retail sector.
Myer’s chief executive this week warned that a sales slump in June and July (that followed a strong May) had already resulted in more promotional activity than had been planned. For the full year to July Myer was expecting sales to limp 0.3 per cent higher.
ANZ-Roy Morgan’s measure of Australian consumer confidence fell 4.4 points to 71.2 points last week, which is its lowest since June. This evidence is all pointing in the same direction.
And one would have to agree with Panos – that now is not the time to be selling a home.
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